European Economies Are Not Stagnating

economy, statistics

At Jacobin an interesting exploration of how different methods can produce different GDP numbers, and how we (official statistics) might require methodological updating. The article explores a Dutch-developed method in particular: the Penn World Table. If I understand correctly, it does not use official exchanges rates to produce GDP number in a single currency (almost always, or always, USD), but purchasing power parity tables, which track real costs over time of baskets of products, which generates a price index which can be compared to different countries.

Gives you a good idea of what goes on in official statistics, and what the impact is on key figures you’ve heard about and your government uses to determine policy.


Razzias in Minneapolis

fascism, society, united states

Apart from all the other terrible things happening, Minneapolis is showing us what descendance into fascism looks like. The Minneapolis major was on the Daily Show with a very clear story and message, which should raise those gun-totin’ Americans in an uproar, one would think. I listen to the Heavyweight podcast, whose main lead lives in this city, and who’d be telling exactly the kind of stories you’d expect are now plentiful there. The latest episode is about the events, and the way his wife tells here experience, just one word popped into my mind: razzia.

In Dutch, this sort of “raid” would be (but isn’t much) translated as “razzia”, which means a very specific kind of raid, namely the sort of raids ICE are conducting. Looking to find people with a certain status and ethnicity, people who’ve almost always settled here ages, generations ago, are part of their communities but can be distinguished if you insist by having some customs or skin color that never was a problem in their communities but can be made into a problem if you have an army of brownshirts looking for something to do, something to hate.

The ascendance of Trump and the extreme-right in the US have made it hard to avoid Godwin’s like the word “razzia”, so let’s try the following. Imagine we are living in Germany late thirties, and let’s take stock of how the government, public discourse and the national conversation have changed in recent years. Fascists, or if that’s too strong a word for you, fascist-admirers have taken control over the government. Not quite through elections, which then were cancelled because why would they now me necessary? A clear vision on who is desirable (white Aryans) and who isn’t (the rest, with a certain hierarchy) and who can be freely blamed instead of solving problems is established. Most aren’t part of the undesirables, but many are, and certainly in more urban areas do people know, interact, live with, marry with the undesirables. A new quasi police force is not really there to dispense justice but to harrass, bully and even “accidentally” murder the out-group. They sometimes do that by way of raids, or razzias: a group will attempt to discover and “arrest” all out-group people present in a certain area, street or block. First, things happen far away, then, they happen in your street.

How can you possibly ignore the huge commonalities?


AI intensifies work

ai, work

One of the first studies on the relationship between AI and work shows an interesting and solid result: AI intensifies work, it does not reduce it. Even without that conclusion, it’s an interesting article because we all want to understand how our work is going to change.

I have to think of who’s been pocketing advances in productivity ever since Keynes speculated about the 15 hour work week: not workers! And a lot of workers undestandibly don’t mind this, because productivity can give you an advantage that doesn’t save time, but earn you more money. And guess what people, business owners and employees alike, overwhelmingly prefer?

I also have to think about addiction, obesity, mental issues due to social media overuse; we as a biological species are not programmed for surplus, we don’t know how to set our own goals and boundaries. Plus, we measure against peers, so we don’t want the same house but a 15 hour work week, we want a 40 hour work week and a bigger house, just like the neighbour. Or at least, many people can’t make that decision.

As scarcity decreasingly is an issue, I wonder when, or if, our species will ever adapt and simply choose a level and state we are comfortable in without feeling pressure or need to stay in the rat race.


Ronddwalen

philosophy

Beste analyticus, Ik voel me weinig een kind van mijn tijd. Ik houd niet van concerten, festivals, raves, avontuurlijke reizen, netwerkevents, social media. Maar ik houd van lezen, wandelen, baden, middagdutjes, stofzuigen en lang tafelen. Het zijn niet bepaald de zaken die je langs de maatstaf van ‘succes’ kunt leggen. Publieke erkenning zal ik er althans niet voor krijgen.

Ik doe mijn werk gepassioneerd en zo goed mogelijk, maar vraag me niet naar een meerjarenplan. Vandaag doe ik dit, morgen zien we wel. Soms verdenk ik mezelf ervan dat ik niet ambitieus ben. Ik heb een natuurlijk talent voor luiheid en nietsdoen. Ik verlies tijd met lummelen, ronddwalen in de tuin, een bladzijde drie keer opnieuw lezen omdat ik een gedachte of formulering niet begrijp.

Ik ben traag en verkies stilte boven het soms drammerige lawaai van de wereld. Ik word makkelijk overrompeld door nerveus geclaxonneer en mensen die hun stem verheffen. Ik voel me bij momenten een kind van twaalf (in de natuur) of een opaatje van zeventig (na een middagdutje). In werkelijkheid ben ik dertig. Terwijl mijn vrienden halve marathons lopen, bedrijven oprichten, vijfsterrenrecensies scoren en andere zichtbare successen boeken, vraag ik me luidop af: waartoe zal dit trage, onzichtbare leven leiden – het leven dat misschien onopgemerkt voorbijgaat?

Hartelijke groeten, T.

Dank voor het schrijven van je brief, T. En dank Arthur voor het schrijven van je reactie.


Custom roms alive!

android

Whelp… reports of custom roms death are greatly exaggerated…

Remember how I installed /e/OS,based on LineageOS 22 based on Android 15, that comes with microG preinstalled? Turn out that when you add your Google account to it (under Settings > System > microG) MEETS_BASIC_INTEGRITY now passes! In the same place, you’ll find an item “Google device registration”, which should be ticked and I suspect is what makes the difference. After this, one of the apps in questions now correctly works, I’ll test the other later. Strangely, this reports the phone as a Pixel 2? Is this one of those hardcoded fingerprints?

I recall going over these items when I ran the phone with LineageOS+microG (which should function identically) but I left most of the options unticked (they were not ticked). I retried using try on the LOS 23 image, amd that worked too! Make sure to install both microG Services and microG Companion.

Adding your Google account to the /e/OS “App Lounge” (which is a presupplied Aurora Store) does NOT do the trick.

Although I am not sure, perhaps signature spoofing is what makes this work? MindTheGapps is missing from that list, and LinageOS specifically includes code to make microG work. Then again, why would Lineage recommend MindTheGapps? No idea… And is this a way to register manually?

In summary, do NOT use MindTheGapps, but microG, as they instruct. Alternatively, /e/OS.